Nomura: Indian steel majors among best-positioned producers worldwide
Steel

Nomura: Indian steel majors among best-positioned producers worldwide

India's steel industry is set to expand significantly over the next few years, with plans to add around 23 million tonnes (MT) of crude steel capacity between FY24 and FY27, according to a report by Nomura.

As per the report, the industry is reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8 per cent. The report noted that this growth target is in consistent with the industry's long-term average growth from FY15 to FY24.

Despite this substantial increase in capacity, experts believe that the Indian steel sector is poised to enter a favorable phase.

"We estimate India's steel industry will add approx. 23MT crude steel capacity over FY24-27F, at an implied 4.8 pc CAGR, in line with the FY15-24 long-term average" said the report.

The report noted that the steel majors JSW, JSPL, Tata Steel and ArcelorMittal & Nippon Steel should account for nearly 87 per cent of the ongoing capacity expansion. Although the report noted that significant capacity will come onstream over the next three years.

The JSW steel is set to add 7MT by FY28F at a 5 per cent CAGR over FY24-28F, according to the report. While the JSPL is set to add 6.3MT by FY27F at an 18 per cent CAGR over FY24- 27F.

The report also suggested that even under a conservative assumption of 6 per cent CAGR in steel demand through FY27 (compared to 7 per cent over the last five years), capacity additions are still expected to fall behind demand growth during this period. This could lead to an improvement in the domestic supply-demand balance, reducing the need for steel companies to rely on exports for volume growth.

"Improvement in domestic supply-demand fundamentals through FY27F would suggest reduced dependence on exports for volume growth" added the report.

India's steel companies are well-positioned within the global metals sector, according to analysts. These companies benefit from operating at the lower end of the global cost curve, mainly due to lower labor costs. Additionally, India's iron ore costs remain competitive compared to other countries, even for non-integrated steel producers.

The future expansion of India's steel industry is expected to be driven largely by brownfield projects, where existing facilities are expanded or upgraded. Strong domestic demand is another factor that could help reduce the industry's reliance on exports.

Over the past few years, India's steel production has grown at a 6 per cent CAGR between 2019 and 2023, far outpacing China's 1 per cent growth and the rest of the world's 1 per cent decline. With these factors in place, Indian steel companies are seen as some of the best-positioned producers globally, offering significant growth potential in the coming years.

"We believe Indian steel majors are among the best-placed producers globally" the report noted.

India's steel industry is set to expand significantly over the next few years, with plans to add around 23 million tonnes (MT) of crude steel capacity between FY24 and FY27, according to a report by Nomura.As per the report, the industry is reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8 per cent. The report noted that this growth target is in consistent with the industry's long-term average growth from FY15 to FY24.Despite this substantial increase in capacity, experts believe that the Indian steel sector is poised to enter a favorable phase.We estimate India's steel industry will add approx. 23MT crude steel capacity over FY24-27F, at an implied 4.8 pc CAGR, in line with the FY15-24 long-term average said the report.The report noted that the steel majors JSW, JSPL, Tata Steel and ArcelorMittal & Nippon Steel should account for nearly 87 per cent of the ongoing capacity expansion. Although the report noted that significant capacity will come onstream over the next three years.The JSW steel is set to add 7MT by FY28F at a 5 per cent CAGR over FY24-28F, according to the report. While the JSPL is set to add 6.3MT by FY27F at an 18 per cent CAGR over FY24- 27F.The report also suggested that even under a conservative assumption of 6 per cent CAGR in steel demand through FY27 (compared to 7 per cent over the last five years), capacity additions are still expected to fall behind demand growth during this period. This could lead to an improvement in the domestic supply-demand balance, reducing the need for steel companies to rely on exports for volume growth.Improvement in domestic supply-demand fundamentals through FY27F would suggest reduced dependence on exports for volume growth added the report.India's steel companies are well-positioned within the global metals sector, according to analysts. These companies benefit from operating at the lower end of the global cost curve, mainly due to lower labor costs. Additionally, India's iron ore costs remain competitive compared to other countries, even for non-integrated steel producers.The future expansion of India's steel industry is expected to be driven largely by brownfield projects, where existing facilities are expanded or upgraded. Strong domestic demand is another factor that could help reduce the industry's reliance on exports.Over the past few years, India's steel production has grown at a 6 per cent CAGR between 2019 and 2023, far outpacing China's 1 per cent growth and the rest of the world's 1 per cent decline. With these factors in place, Indian steel companies are seen as some of the best-positioned producers globally, offering significant growth potential in the coming years.We believe Indian steel majors are among the best-placed producers globally the report noted.

Next Story
Real Estate

Emaar to invest Rs 1,000 crore in Gurugram housing project

Emaar India, a prominent real estate developer, has announced a major new project in Gurugram, one of the most sought-after residential locations in the National Capital Region (NCR). The company is investing approximately Rs 1,000 crore in the development of a luxury housing project named ‘Amaris.’ The project, situated on Golf Course Extension Road in Gurugram’s Sector 62, will span over 6.2 acres and is expected to feature 522 high-end apartments, with a total development potential of 15 lakh square feet. This project, launched in response to the growing demand for premium residentia..

Next Story
Infrastructure Urban

Punjab-Haryana HC slams ED over IREO money laundering investigation

The Punjab and Haryana High Court criticised the Enforcement Directorate (ED) for conducting a ‘slipshod and unprofessional’ investigation into money laundering cases involving IREO and its functionaries. The court directed the ED's director to address the lapses in the probe. The court noted that the accused company's real estate assets were allowed to be disposed of without proper oversight. Justice Kuldeep Tiwari issued these directives after being informed of a November 6 order by a coordinate bench, in which Gulshan Babbar sought the cancellation of bail granted to IREO MD Lalit Goya..

Next Story
Infrastructure Urban

Capitaland to buy 40% stake in SC Capital Partners for $209.31 mn

Singapore's CapitaLand Investment announced that it plans to acquire a 40 per cent stake in SC Capital Partners Group (SCCP) for $280 million. Additionally, the company intends to invest at least $524 million in SCCP. The acquisition of the 40 per cent stake in SCCP, a Singapore-based real estate investment manager, is expected to increase CapitaLand's funds under management (FUM) by $11 billion. The company explained that this move would strengthen its presence in Japan, its key market, where 76 per cent of the additional $11 billion FUM is located. In its statement, CapitaLand emphasised t..

Hi There!

"Now get regular updates from CW Magazine on WhatsApp!

Join the CW WhatsApp channel for the latest news, industry events, expert insights, and project updates from the construction and infrastructure industry.

Click the link below to join"

+91 81086 03000