IMF: China's property market worsens
ECONOMY & POLICY

IMF: China's property market worsens

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of a possible worsening of the state of China's property market as it trimmed its growth expectations for the world's second-largest economy. In a report published Tuesday, the IMF trimmed its forecast for growth in China for this year to 4.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than in its July projection. In 2025, growth is expected to come in at 4.5%, according to the IMF. The Washington, D.C.-based organization also highlighted that China's property sector contracting by more than expected is one of many downside risks for the global economic outlook. "Conditions for the real estate market could worsen, with further price corrections taking place amid a contraction in sales and investment," the report said. Historical property crises in other countries like Japan (in the 1990s) and the U.S. (in 2008) show that unless the crisis in China is addressed, prices could correct further, the IMF's World Economic Outlook noted. This in turn could send consumer confidence lower and reduce household consumption and domestic demand, the agency explained. China has announced the introduction of various measures aimed at boosting its fading economic growth in recent months. In September, the People's Bank of China announced a slate of support such as reducing the amount of cash banks are required to have on hand. Just a few days later, China's top leaders said they were aiming to put a halt to the slump in the property sector, saying its decline needed to be stopped and a recovery needed to be encouraged. Major cities including Guangzhou and Shanghai also unveiled measures aiming to boost homebuyer sentiment. China's Minister of Finance then earlier this month hinted that the country had space to increase its debt and its deficit. Lan Fo'an signaled that more stimulus was on its way and policy changes around debt and the deficit could come soon. The Chinese housing ministry meanwhile announced that it was expanding its "whitelist" of real estate projects and speeding up bank lending for those unfinished developments. Some measures from the Chinese authorities have already been included in the IMF's latest projections, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF told CNBC'S Karen Tso on Tuesday. "They are certainly going in the right direction, not enough to move the needle from the 4.8% we're projecting for this year and 4.5% for next year," he said, noting that the more recent measures were still being assessed and have not been incorporated into the agency's projections so far. "They [the more recent support measures] could provide some upside risk in terms of output, but this is the context in which the third quarter of Chinese economic activity has disappointed on the downside, so we have this tension between, on the one hand, the economy is not doing as well, and then there is a need for support. Is there going to be enough support? We don't know yet," Gourinchas said. China last week reported third-quarter gross domestic product growth of 4.6%, slightly higher than the 4.5% that economists polled by Reuters had been expecting. "Government stimulus to counter weakness in domestic demand would place further strain on public finances. Subsidies in certain sectors, if targeted to boost exports, could exacerbate trade tensions with China's trading partners," the agency said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of a possible worsening of the state of China's property market as it trimmed its growth expectations for the world's second-largest economy. In a report published Tuesday, the IMF trimmed its forecast for growth in China for this year to 4.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than in its July projection. In 2025, growth is expected to come in at 4.5%, according to the IMF. The Washington, D.C.-based organization also highlighted that China's property sector contracting by more than expected is one of many downside risks for the global economic outlook. Conditions for the real estate market could worsen, with further price corrections taking place amid a contraction in sales and investment, the report said. Historical property crises in other countries like Japan (in the 1990s) and the U.S. (in 2008) show that unless the crisis in China is addressed, prices could correct further, the IMF's World Economic Outlook noted. This in turn could send consumer confidence lower and reduce household consumption and domestic demand, the agency explained. China has announced the introduction of various measures aimed at boosting its fading economic growth in recent months. In September, the People's Bank of China announced a slate of support such as reducing the amount of cash banks are required to have on hand. Just a few days later, China's top leaders said they were aiming to put a halt to the slump in the property sector, saying its decline needed to be stopped and a recovery needed to be encouraged. Major cities including Guangzhou and Shanghai also unveiled measures aiming to boost homebuyer sentiment. China's Minister of Finance then earlier this month hinted that the country had space to increase its debt and its deficit. Lan Fo'an signaled that more stimulus was on its way and policy changes around debt and the deficit could come soon. The Chinese housing ministry meanwhile announced that it was expanding its whitelist of real estate projects and speeding up bank lending for those unfinished developments. Some measures from the Chinese authorities have already been included in the IMF's latest projections, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF told CNBC'S Karen Tso on Tuesday. They are certainly going in the right direction, not enough to move the needle from the 4.8% we're projecting for this year and 4.5% for next year, he said, noting that the more recent measures were still being assessed and have not been incorporated into the agency's projections so far. They [the more recent support measures] could provide some upside risk in terms of output, but this is the context in which the third quarter of Chinese economic activity has disappointed on the downside, so we have this tension between, on the one hand, the economy is not doing as well, and then there is a need for support. Is there going to be enough support? We don't know yet, Gourinchas said. China last week reported third-quarter gross domestic product growth of 4.6%, slightly higher than the 4.5% that economists polled by Reuters had been expecting. Government stimulus to counter weakness in domestic demand would place further strain on public finances. Subsidies in certain sectors, if targeted to boost exports, could exacerbate trade tensions with China's trading partners, the agency said.

Next Story
Infrastructure Urban

Shoals' Q3 2024 revenue falls 23.9% due to project delays, supply chain

Shoals Technologies Group, a U.S.-headquartered manufacturer of electrical balance of systems (EBOS) for solar, energy storage, and e-mobility, reported a 23.9% year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue, which dropped to $102.2 million in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024. This decline was mainly attributed to project delays and supply chain disruptions. The company posted a net loss of $300,000, a significant improvement compared to the $9.8 million net loss in Q3 2023. Adjusted net income was reported at $13.9 million, reflecting a 58.2% YoY decrease. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $24.5 million, a 4..

Next Story
Infrastructure Energy

FTC Solar sees 67% YoY decline in Q3 revenue from lower volumes

FTC Solar, a U.S.-based provider of solar tracker systems, reported a revenue of $10.14 million in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024, surpassing analyst expectations by $240,680. However, this figure marked a 66.8% year-over-year (YoY) decline compared to the same quarter in 2023, primarily attributed to reduced product volumes. The decline in solar tracker revenue was mainly due to an 82% decrease in the amount of MW produced, which was negatively impacted by delays in customer projects. This was partially offset by an increase in the average selling price (ASP), which led to better pricing an..

Next Story
Infrastructure Urban

Dilip Buildcon wins bid for BharatNet Phase III broadband project

Dilip Buildcon announced on Tuesday, November 12, that its STL-DBL consortium had submitted the lowest bid for BSNL's BharatNet Phase III broadband connectivity project. The USOF-funded project, which aims to provide middle and last-mile connectivity in Jammu Kashmir and Ladakh, is valued at Rs.1,625.36 Crore. Dilip Buildcon holds a 70.23% stake in the implementation of the project. The project is expected to be completed in three years, and the corporation will secure a 10-year maintenance contract. In recent days, BSNL has awarded several contracts for the BharatNet project. On Monday, No..

Hi There!

"Now get regular updates from CW Magazine on WhatsApp!

Join the CW WhatsApp channel for the latest news, industry events, expert insights, and project updates from the construction and infrastructure industry.

Click the link below to join"

+91 81086 03000