A year after over 130 countries pledged to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 at COP28, a report by energy think tank Ember reveals that national targets have barely shifted, only adding up to a doubling of capacity by 2030. The report 'In 12 months the renewables market has moved but governments have not', states that while renewables markets are progressing, governmental targets lag, with just eight countries revising their renewable goals since the pledge. Ember's report finds that the combined 2030 national renewable energy targets of these countries total 7,242 GW—2.1 times the 2022 capacity of 3,379 GW. Meeting the tripling goal would require an additional 3,758 GW in renewable capacity by 2030. “The growth of renewables is exceeding expectations every year, combined with falling prices," said Dr. Katye Altieri, Electricity Analyst at Ember. "Markets are booming, but there’s still a lack of ambition from countries.” Solar capacity is on a rapid growth trajectory, with projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) increasing by 22% over the past year, suggesting that solar targets could align with the quintupling needed by 2030. Despite this, government solar targets collectively aim for only 3,011 GW by 2030, or 2.5 times the 2022 capacity. For wind, the targets add up to a doubling by 2030, falling short of the tripling required to meet global targets. Ember's analysis, covering 96 countries and the EU, which account for 96% of the world’s renewable capacity, points to large regional gaps in target-setting across regions like the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Sub-Saharan Africa, Eurasia, Latin America, and Asia. Despite the urgency, only 30 of these 96 countries have set any national energy storage targets, collectively amounting to 284 GW, far from the 1,500 GW needed by 2030 according to COP29 goals. As COP29 approaches, the report urges governments to take decisive action, with the upcoming 2025 update of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) seen as an opportunity to close the gap between national ambitions and the global tripling goal.
