Official data revealed that China's new home prices had fallen at their fastest rate in over nine years in August, as supportive measures failed to induce a significant recovery in the property sector. The data showed that new home prices were down 5.3% compared to the previous year, marking the sharpest decline since May 2015, compared to a 4.9% drop in July, based on calculations by Reuters from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. Monthly figures indicated that new home prices had fallen for the fourteenth consecutive month, decreasing by 0.7%, which was the same drop recorded in July.
The property market in China continues to struggle with deeply indebted developers, incomplete apartments, and declining buyer confidence, which is putting a strain on the financial system and threatening the 5% economic growth target for the year. A Reuters poll had forecast that home prices in China would decline by 8.5% in 2024 and by 3.9% in 2025 as the sector struggles to stabilise.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at property agency Centaline, mentioned that the property market is still gradually bottoming out, with home buyers' demand, income, and confidence expected to take some time to recover. He noted that the market was anticipating a stronger policy response. According to the official data released on Saturday, property investment had fallen by 10.2% and home sales had dropped by 18.0% year-on-year in the first eight months of the year.
Chinese policymakers have stepped up efforts to support the property sector, including reducing mortgage rates and lowering home buying costs. These measures have partially revitalised demand in major cities, while smaller cities, which have fewer home purchase restrictions and high levels of unsold inventory, are particularly vulnerable. This situation underscores the difficulties faced by authorities in balancing demand and supply across different regions.
In a research note on Friday, Nomura indicated that with the growth slowdown worsening under new headwinds in the second half of the year, Beijing might eventually need to step in as the "builder of last resort" by directly providing funding to delayed residential projects that have already been pre-sold. According to Bloomberg News, China may cut interest rates on over $5 trillion in outstanding mortgages as early as this month.
To support these mortgage rate cuts, economists at ANZ suggested that a reduction in the five-year Loan Prime Rate was likely in September, along with a 20 basis point cut to the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and a 50 basis point cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR).
