Freight rates are soaring once more, driven by a surprisingly straightforward issue: a shortage of empty containers in China. This scarcity, caused by geopolitical tensions and logistical imbalances, is exacerbating global shipping challenges and raising eyebrows across the industry.

Until recently, ocean liners grappled with an excess of containers. Heavy investments during the pandemic led to an oversupply, but rerouting of vessels due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea has now created a drastic shortage. Ships are struggling to find empty containers, prompting a familiar scramble reminiscent of the Covid years.

AP Moller-Maersk A/S, responding to intensifying port congestion in Asia and the Middle East, has raised its earnings forecast twice this month. Industry executives, including George Youroukos of Global Ship Lease Inc., warn that container shortages might worsen, with boxes not returning to China swiftly enough.

Global trade?s inherent imbalance, with China as a net exporter and the US as a net importer, complicates container management. Ships now need more containers to transport the same amount of goods due to longer sea routes and increased demand, explained Hapag-Lloyd AG CEO Rolf Habben Jansen.

The Suez Canal's limited accessibility has forced carriers to offload goods at alternative ports like Barcelona, causing delays. Additionally, a surge in Chinese container imports to Russia has trapped equipment there, further straining supply chains.

The market response has seen a rapid rise in container production in China, but factories are fully booked until late summer. Prices for high cube containers have surged to $3,350, nearly double the average price in September.

As shipping lines and lessors navigate these turbulent waters, customers face the brunt of the price hikes and delays. The industry, despite its critical role in global trade, continues to struggle with resilience and adaptability in the face of unpredictable disruptions.