India's steel industry is poised for substantial growth, with plans to add approximately 23 million tonnes (MT) of crude steel capacity between FY24 and FY27, according to a report by Nomura. The sector is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8%, aligning with the industry’s long-term growth trend from FY15 to FY24.

The report highlights that major steel producers such as JSW, JSPL, Tata Steel, and ArcelorMittal & Nippon Steel will contribute nearly 87% of the ongoing capacity expansion. Specifically, JSW Steel is expected to add 7MT by FY28 at a 5% CAGR, while JSPL is set to add 6.3MT by FY27 at an impressive 18% CAGR.

Despite this significant increase in capacity, the report suggests that supply additions may still fall short of demand growth. Even under a conservative estimate of 6% CAGR in steel demand through FY27 (compared to 7% in the last five years), the domestic supply-demand balance is expected to improve, potentially reducing the need for Indian steel companies to rely on exports for volume growth.

Analysts believe that Indian steel majors are well-positioned in the global metals sector due to their competitive cost structure. Lower labour costs and competitive iron ore prices, even for non-integrated producers; place them at the lower end of the global cost curve.

The future expansion of India’s steel industry is expected to be driven primarily by brownfield projects, with strong domestic demand further supporting growth and reducing the industry’s dependency on exports.

(ET)