Reliance Industries, India’s most valuable company, has returned to a growth trajectory after six months of challenges, as it reported better-than-expected earnings for the December quarter, according to brokerages. The oil-to-telecom-and-retail conglomerate achieved its highest-ever EBITDA of Rs 438 billion during October-December 2024, the third quarter of the FY25 fiscal, surpassing estimates due to strong performances across all segments. This growth was notably driven by the robust performance of its oil-to-chemical (O2C) segment and a recovery in consumer retail.

"Reliance is back on a growth path after six months of challenges," Morgan Stanley noted in its report. The company is focusing on expanding its domestic chemical capacity with investments in vinyl/polyester chains and ethane import logistics, contributing to reduced costs and carbon footprint. HSBC Global Research highlighted multiple catalysts for 2025, including the turnaround of retail, the launch of its new energy business, and renewed momentum in its digital operations.

In the retail sector, Reliance is expected to optimise its portfolio and make strides in grocery express delivery using a hyperlocal model. The new energy segment is set to commence production of solar modules and sodium-ion cells while scaling up hydrogen manufacturing. Meanwhile, the digital business is likely to see accelerated broadband penetration through AirFibre, a visible impact from tariff hikes by June 2025, and potential monetisation announcements.

Nomura highlighted three immediate triggers: the launch of the new energy business in March 2025, upcoming tariff hikes for Jio, and a potential IPO for Jio. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicted a strong performance in FY26, driven by refining margins, another Jio tariff hike, and growth in retail and new energy. Reliance’s foray into green energy was also recognised as promising by BP Paribas, which noted the company’s significant investments in solar, batteries, and hydrogen.

Brokerages like Macquarie Capital and Elara Capital emphasised an anticipated recovery in O2C margins and robust retail growth, while Kotak Institutional Equities and Antique Stock Broking highlighted the telecom segment’s potential for subscriber growth and tariff hikes.