By 2025, India is poised to become the world's second-largest producer of solar modules, outpacing Southeast Asia and focusing primarily on meeting the demand in the United States, according to a report by Wood Mackenzie. This development occurs against the backdrop of China's anticipated dominance, holding over 80% of the global capacity for the solar module supply chain starting in 2024.

The report highlights India's strategic plan to boost module exports to the lucrative US market. However, the country faces hurdles in the form of high production costs, attributed to a 25% basic customs duty on imported solar cells. There is speculation that the Indian government may consider reducing the duty on Chinese modules, currently subject to a 40% tax, to support its export ambitions.

Conversely, the United States, propelled by the Inflation Reduction Act, is actively developing its photovoltaic manufacturing capabilities. Yet, the absence of domestic production for wafers, cells, or glass implies continued reliance on imports, particularly after the expiration of President Biden's temporary waiver on solar import tariffs in mid-2024.

In parallel, Southeast Asia's solar capacity, largely influenced by Chinese investments, and Europe's advocacy for protective tariffs on Chinese modules due to non-competitive prices underscore significant shifts in the global solar module supply chain.

The report also delves into China's dominance in N-type cell technology, constituting 95% of the announced global expansions in this field, and anticipates its consequential impact on the market. Despite challenges leading to tightened profit margins in the sector, the report suggests that vertically integrated manufacturers may still discover growth opportunities.