India’s crude oil imports averaged 4.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in September, maintaining a position at the higher end of its five-year seasonal range, as per the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for November 2024. The data indicated a 30% month-on-month increase in India’s product exports, primarily driven by higher diesel outflows, which signalled robust demand for refined products from Indian refineries.

On a global scale, OPEC reported an increase in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rising by 1.2 per cent to $74.45 per barrel in October. Benchmark crude prices also saw gains, with ICE Brent averaging $75.38 per barrel and NYMEX WTI averaging $71.56 per barrel, reflecting respective month-on-month increases of 3.4 per cent and 3.2 per cent. The report noted on-going volatility in oil futures, coupled with a slight flattening in the forward curves amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

The global economic outlook had only slight adjustments. India’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 remained steady at 6.8 per cent, with a forecast of 6.3 per cent for 2025. Meanwhile, global oil demand growth for 2024 was slightly revised down by 107,000 barrels per day (b/d), now projected at 1.8 mb/d. Demand growth in the OECD region was expected to be around 0.2 mb/d, with non-OECD demand growth projected at nearly 1.7 mb/d. For 2025, the demand forecast stood at 1.5 mb/d, reflecting a slight downward revision.

India’s steady demand for crude imports was consistent with OPEC’s findings regarding global oil demand and supply adjustments. OPEC reported a 0.21 mb/d increase in crude production by countries in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), bringing their production to 40.34 mb/d in October. The supply of non-DoC liquids, mainly from the US and Canada, was projected to rise by 1.2 mb/d in 2024.

The report also highlighted tightening refining margins in October, due to seasonal output constraints and increased fuel oil demand, particularly in the Atlantic Basin and Asia. This led to strengthened margins, especially for gasoil and jet fuel, which were the main margin drivers during the month. In the tanker market, shipping rates increased across various routes, including a 6 per cent rise in VLCC rates on the Middle East-to-East route and a substantial 81 per cent rise in Aframax rates on the Caribbean-to-US East Coast route.