“The bid outcome demonstrates the severe competitive disadvantage domestic producers currently face. We anticipate domestic polysilicon and cell capacity to reach only 30 GW and 42 GW, respectively, by December 2026, barely enough to meet domestic demand,” according to Vinay Rustagi, managing director of Bridge To India. This is despite significant trade restrictions and a variety of incentives. Sadly, he continued, both project developers and manufacturers can expect more market uncertainty.

A total of 11 companies received PLI awards totaling $1.7 billion under tranche-II to establish a combined manufacturing capacity of 39.6 GW. According to the consultancy, PLI was given to Reliance and Shirdi Sai for an additional 6 GW of fully integrated capacity each, bringing their combined allocated capacity to 10 GW each, the maximum allowed under the programme. With a 3.4 GW capacity, First Solar is the only other winner in the fully integrated category. In the wafer- module category, there are five winners, including Waaree, ReNew, Avaada, Grew, and JSW, with a combined capacity of 16.8 GW; in the cell-module category, there are three winners, including Tata Power, Vikram, and Amp, with a combined capacity of 7.4 GW.

The consultant noted that it is important to take note of the fact that project developers, who are concerned about the market disruption over the past two years and the strict import barriers, have contributed close to 50% of the PLI bid capacity. These developers are primarily looking to service their captive demand.