The research, led by Stanford and Harvard Universities, offers the strongest evidence yet of the link between rising temperatures and increasing dengue infections. The analysis predicts a potential 40-60% spike in cases by 2050, with some regions, including parts of Latin America, facing up to a 200% increase.

India is among the nations grappling with a surge in dengue cases this year, reflecting the global trend. In the Americas, reported cases have skyrocketed to nearly 12 million in 2024, up from 4.6 million in 2023. Locally acquired infections in California and Florida highlight the disease's expanding footprint.

“We found a clear and direct relationship between rising temperatures and rising infections,” said Erin Mordecai, infectious disease ecologist at Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment. “Our data suggest the impact of climate change on dengue could get much worse.”

While efforts to moderate global warming by reducing emissions could temper dengue's spread, the study notes that even with significant carbon cuts, 17 out of 21 countries analyzed will still see climate-driven increases in infections.

The findings emphasize the urgency of addressing climate change, as areas newly entering the 20–29°C "sweet spot" for dengue transmission—such as parts of Peru, Mexico, and Brazil—face the most dramatic risks. Researchers warn infections in these regions could rise by 150-200% over the next few decades.

With no specific treatments and limited vaccine adoption, combating dengue's growing threat requires global climate action to mitigate future impacts.