These project wins have increased AESL's market share in tariff-based competitive bidding (TBCB) orders to 24 per cent, up from 17 per cent in the second quarter. The company's current order book stands at Rs 547 billion, compared to Rs 170 billion at the beginning of the financial year, marking the highest order book among private sector transmission companies.

During the quarter, AESL commissioned a transmission line, adding over 1,000 circuit kilometre to its network, which now totals 26,485 cKM and 84,286 MVA of transformation capacity. This is a significant increase from 20,422 cKM and 54,661 MVA as of December 2023.

In terms of distribution, AESL supplies power to more than 3 million customers in the Mumbai metropolitan and Mundra SEZ regions. The Mumbai market experienced a 3 per cent year-on-year rise in power sales, reaching 2.57 billion units, while the Mundra market saw a 30 per cent increase, reaching 236 million units. The company has also applied for a parallel distribution license in Navi Mumbai, Kutch, and the Ghaziabad-Jewar-Bulandshahr area.

Jefferies forecasts that AESL will achieve a 16 per cent revenue CAGR and a 62 per cent profit CAGR between FY24 and FY27, driven by its strong growth prospects in both transmission and distribution. The company targets the commissioning of Rs 273 billion worth of projects by October 2026.

In the smart metering segment, AESL was the lowest bidder for a cancelled tender involving 8.2 million metre in Tamil Nadu. This tender is not part of AESL's existing pipeline of 22.8 million metre, but the company has stated that it will participate in the rebidding when it occurs. Jefferies expects AESL to add 4.5 million smart meters by the end of FY25 and 10 million by FY26, with 7 million of those coming from existing contracts and the remainder from new wins.

AESL's capital management strategy focuses on reducing volatility in interest costs through long-tenure bonds. The company is also refining its debt management approach to align with the lifespan of its assets, locking in fixed rates wherever possible. The management is committed to minimizing volatility across its asset base, including refinancing and raising debt to match asset life, implementing vendor back-to-back arrangements to mitigate the impact of commodity price fluctuations, and conducting land studies to expedite project commissioning. However, the report notes potential downside risks, including the inability to maintain interest rates and the loss of market share.